AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Hovers Around UNCH

April 18, 2019

Corn futures are fractionally lower at midday on scattered reports of planting activity and a warmer forecast for next week. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed sharply higher sales of 947,600 MT for old crop in the week ending April 11. New crop bookings were 18,400 MT. Trade ideas for this morning’s report had been running 500-850,000 MT for old crop and 0 to 100,000 MT for new crop. Monthly trade data from Census shows corn exports during February down 4.03% from last year at 3.617 MMT. Feb DDG exports totaled 686,005 MT, which was a 5-year low on lower production. Ethanol shipments were reported at 113.82 million gallons. The market will be closed on Good Friday.

May 19 Corn is at $3.57 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.66 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.74 1/4, down 3/4 cent

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.85 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Creeps Into Positive Territory

April 18, 2019

Soybean futures are fractionally higher on position squaring ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend. Meal futures are down $.40/ton and May soy oil is 21 points higher. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report was expected to show 350,000-800,000 MT in old crop soybean bookings for the week of 4/11, with new crop at 0-60,000 MT. USDA confirmed net soybean sales of 382,100 MT for old crop and 21,100 MT for new crop. Meal sales were expected to be 125,000-325,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The actual meal books were on the high side of expectations at 295,300 MT, with soy oil at 24,200 MT. US Soybean exports in February were the 5th largest monthly total on record, 4.577 MMT. That was up 8.65% yr/yr, but down 5.2% from January. Shipments to China were slightly larger than in 2018.

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.80, up 1 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.93 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.99 1/2, up 1 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.04 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $303.50, down $0.40,

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.67, up $0.21

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Still 3 to 4 Lower

April 18, 2019

Wheat futures are trading mostly 4 to 5 cents lower in the CHI and KC contracts at midday, with MPLS spring wheat 1/4 to 1 cent lower. Census trade data, released on Wednesday morning, showed the largest wheat exports for February since 2012/13 at 2.262 MMT. That was a 61.97% jump from 2018 and 12.95% larger than January. The range of estimates for old crop wheat export sales in the week of April 11 had been 200,000-400,000 MT. USDA confirmed 317,700 MTs were sold that week. Analysts also expected to see 150,000-300,000 MT for new crop bookings. The weekly Export Sales report showed 227,800 MT sold for 2019/20 delivery.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.42 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.17, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, down 1/4 cent

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Market Cautious Ahead of COF Report

April 18, 2019

Live cattle futures are mostly 10 to 80 cents lower ahead of the monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report. April is the exception, up $1.10 at midday on strength in the cash cattle market. Feeder cattle futures are anywhere from 27 lower to 40 higher at midday, with the late year contracts seeing most of the selling interest. The CME feeder cattle index was up 12 cents on April 16 at $143.58. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed. Choice boxes were up 45 cents at $233.21, with Select boxes $.65 lower at $219.51. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 363,000 head through Wednesday. That would be 3,000 larger than last week and 7,000 head above the same week a year ago. Cash trade has been mostly $126 in the south, with $208 starting to show up in the north. Both are $2 or more above week ago. USDA weekly beef export sales were much improved at 28,800 MT, mostly to South Korea and Japan. Traders expect the USDA Cattle on Feed report to show March placements were about 3% larger than year ago, with April 1 On Feed at 101.7% of 2018.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $128.025, up $1.100,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $122.275, down $0.100,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $119.400, down $0.150,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.700, up $0.375

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $150.975, up $0.375

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $160.475, up $0.025

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market Mixed on Slower Export Pace

April 18, 2019

Lean Hog futures are mixed, with various contracts 60 cents lower to 80 cents higher at midday. May is creeping higher on a firmer tone in the CME Index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 40 cents from the previous day @ $80.24 on April 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 1 cent below yesterday at $86.99 in the AM FOB Plant report. WCB cash hogs were $2.15 lower this morning with a weighted average of $75.40. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.381 million head through Wednesday, down 45,000 from the previous week and 3,000 below last year. USDA reported pork export sales for the week ending April 11 were 40,300 MT. That’s still a big number, but down 56% from the shocker the previous week. Chinese purchases slowed to 23,500 MT. Pork shipments to China were similar to the previous week at 4,500 MT.

May 19 Hogs are at $89.725, up $0.800,

Jun 19 Hogs are at $96.150, up $0.025

Jul 19 Hogs are at $100.200, down $0.425

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Down As Much as 103 on Slower Exports

April 18, 2019

Cotton futures are trading 69 to 103 points lower at midday on a little pre-holiday profit taking. The markets will be closed on Friday. The US dollar is stronger this morning. USDA reported old crop upland cotton export sales were down 25% from the previous week at 217,600 RB, with 20,600 RB booked for 2019/20. Cotton exports in February were tallied at 1.484 million bales according to Census data. That was 21.55% larger than January, which is a typical seasonal rise, but 25.09% lower than Feb 2018. The Cotlook A Index was up 150 points at 87.75 on April 17. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 69.21, 99 points higher than the previous week and effective through Thursday for USDA program purposes. The 18/19 Brazilian cotton crop is expected to be the largest since 14/15 according to Celeres, at 2.5 MMT. USDA ag attach reports suggest that Chinese cotton imports will rise 200,000 MT to 2.0 MMT in 2019/20 and that Egyptian imports will rise 2% for the same year due to sharply reduced 2019 plantings.

May 19 Cotton is at 77.14, down 97 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 77.93, down 103 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 76.72, down 69 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com