AgriCharts Market Commentary

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October 18, 2017

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts fractionally to 1 1/2 cents lower. Drier weather across much of the Corn Belt is helping to advance harvest progress, and putting a little pressure on the market. The weekly EIA ethanol report showed production up over last week at 1.019 million barrels per day for the week of October 13. That was a 52,000 bpd jump over the previous week. Stocks of ethanol dropped 43,000 barrels during that week to 21.48 million barrels. Analysts are expecting to see 0.8-1.1 MMT in 2017/18 corn export sales in Thursday morning’s USDA report. China sold 10,497 MT of the 130,503 MT offered at Thursday’s auction from state reserves.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.48 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.62 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.77 3/4, down 3/4 cent


October 18, 2017

Soybean futures closed the day with most contracts a penny on either side of UNCH. December meal was up 20 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil down 18 cents. A Reuters survey of traders is showing expected 17/18 soybean sales for the week of October 12 at 1.3-1.7 MMT, just shy of last week’s sales. Soy meal sales are projected at 100,000-250,000 MT for 17/18, with soy oil estimated at 5,000-22,000 MT. The 6-10 day forecasts look a little wetter for dry northern Brazilian planting areas. China’s National Grains and Oil Info Center sees soybean oil stocks at 1.6 MMT, well above last year’s 1.3 MMT for the same time.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.84 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.95, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.04 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.21 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $321.80, up $0.20,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.41, down $0.18


October 18, 2017

Wheat futures settled with most CBT and KC contracts 4 to 6 cents lower, with MPLS mostly 1-3 cents in the red. All wheat export sales for the week ending October 12 are expected to pick back up over last week’s sales of 174,961 MT. Analysts are seeing sales of 250,000-450,000 MT, as the USDA has already reported a private sale of 104,202 MT during that week. A US Wheat office that encourages the purchase of US wheat in Egypt is shutting their doors in Cairo in December. This comes from the lack of US sales to the country and the persistent freight advantage for Black Sea offerings. After the close Egypt’s GASC announced a tender for wheat, with the close on Thursday.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.30, down 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.28, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10, down 1 cent


October 18, 2017

Live cattle futures finished with up to 67.5 cent gains in most front contracts. Feeder cattle futures were mostly lower, with nearby Oct up 37.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was 20 cents lower at $155.26 on October 16.Wholesale beef prices were lower in this afternoon’s report. Choice was down 40 cents at $197.26, with select boxes 76 cents lower at $189.09. Weekly FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday is estimated at 345,000 head, about 6,000 fewer than the previous week and 2,000 head larger than the same week last year. This morning’s FCE showed sales of just 230 of the 919 head, at an average price of $109. There were 2 additional lots showing offers at $109 passed by feedlots. Cash trade was reported at $110 in several regions this afternoon. Ahead of Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report, a Reuters survey of analysts is showing September placements 8% larger yr/yr, with a range of 3.4% to 16%. Marketing’s for September are seen at 2.6% larger than last year. On Feed would be up 4-5% from year ago.

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $111.475, up $0.300,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $116.650, up $0.675,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $120.550, up $0.400,

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.525, up $0.375

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.075, down $0.350

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.125, down $0.275

Lean Hogs

October 18, 2017

Lean hog futures posted steady to $1.575 gains in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/16 was 76 cents higher than the previous day at $61. The national base hog was up $1.78 at 62.13, as prices in the IA/MN region were up $1.46 with the WCB $1.52 higher this afternoon. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 93 cents lower at $73.88 in Wednesday afternoon’s report. The ham was the only primal reported higher. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 24,000 head fewer than last week at 1,365,000 head through Wednesday, but still 41,000 larger than the same week in 2016.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $63.750, up $1.575,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $68.000, up $0.850

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $71.900, up $0.600


October 18, 2017

Cotton futures fell 4 to 15 points in the nearby contracts on Wednesday and back months higher, as dry weather is allowing for harvest progress to continue. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) is currently at 60.44 cents/lb through Thursday, and will be updated tomorrow afternoon. The Cotlook A index for the 17th of October was 80 points lower at 77.70 cents/lb. The Seam reported cash sales of 656 bales at an average price of 65.94 cents/lb.This week’s USDA Export Sales report will be back at its normal time on Thursday, at 7:30 AM CDT.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 67.630, down 14 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.330, down 15 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 68.950, up 5 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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